Long -range forecast shows
probability of warm late fall 

The Climate Prediction Center, a branch of the National Weather Service, released its 3-month probability forecasts on Sept. 16, and the forecasts don’t show the type of wet weather that Rio Grande water managers would like to see. The outlook for October, November and December is above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation levels.

Why It Matters: While we can appreciate the idea of warm fall days, the Upper Rio Grande Basin has gone another season without summer monsoons and could use late fall and early winter precipitation. Like 2020, 2021 has brought more drought which worries farm operators and Rio Grande water managers. If the forecast holds true, expect an earlier spring runoff in 2022.

Latest 3-month seasonal temperature outlook:
​​https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif

Latest 3-month seasonal precipitation outlook: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif

Adams State Releases Fall Enrollment Figures

Adams State continued with the same enrollment trends for fall 2021 — bit of a loss in undergraduate students and a bit of growth in students seeking master’s and doctoral degrees.

The school reported an undergraduate headcount of 1,737 students to start the fall semester, down 47 students from a year ago. Of that population, 1,186 are full time students and 551 are attending Adams part time.

“We know last year during the pandemic all students struggled with remaining engaged while adapting to changing circumstances,” said Adams State President Cheryl D. Lovell. “We are pleased to have remained stable and with new programs being developed we believe the future will see growth in our undergraduate enrollment.”

Adams State saw slight growth in its graduate degree programs (master’s and doctoral) — 1,293 students in 2021 compared to 1,251 in fall 2020. The school’s master’s degree in counselor education accounts for 61 percent of Adams State’s total graduate enrollment.

Database of Adams State enrollment: adams.edu/administration/institutional-effectiveness

Why It Matters: While Adams State has been able to turn around its financial position over the past 3 years and actually has an improved credit rating and good cash management, the school eventually needs to figure out its undergraduate enrollment to truly stabilize and grow its impact on the San Luis Valley. The business model of higher education, at least at small, regional public universities like Adams State, relies on being able to charge the undergraduate student tuition over a four- to six-year period. That’s how schools largely pay for their faculty and staff costs, and why Adams and other schools keep looking to increase their tuition cost.

The Challenge Ahead: The competition for the undergraduate student is intense, and small schools like Adams are challenged to compete against schools that have more to offer in scholarships and financial awards. Then you have community colleges like Trinidad State competing for the high school student and the student looking to get their first two years of general subject matter courses at a lower cost. Higher education is in a changing landscape. How we earn degrees and certificates to gain employment is competitive and changing. How Adams adjusts and where it concentrates its efforts will matter even more as it works to carve out its role in the higher ed landscape.