There are no good answers at the moment for the ailing Upper Rio Grande Basin, and in particular the unconfined aquifer that drives so many discussions and decisions among local irrigators and state water officials.
There were none provided at the annual Southern Rocky Mountain Ag Conference held over three days, Feb. 4-6, at the Ski Hi Complex in Monte Vista. Only growing uncertainty and growing frustration with water and sustainable aquifers. And there are none on the horizon until a state water court decision is made on how groundwater pumping is managed in the western and northern ends of the San Luis Valley.
A lack of snowpack so far this winter in the all-important San Juan Mountains to the west of the Valley, and now what looks like a below-average spring runoff season based on February forecasts, add to the challenges Valley farmers and ranchers face as 2025 unfolds.
“Many of you that have been to the mountains, you see that we have poor conditions throughout the basin. It’s a little better on the north and it gets worse as you go south,” said Colorado Division of Water Resources’ Pat McDermott of this year’s snow conditions.
Each annual ag conference ends with reports from the Colorado Division of Water Resources on the condition of the Upper Rio Grande Basin, its confined and unconfined aquifers, and its creeks and ditches, all with an eye toward the spring runoff and irrigation season ahead.
This year was no different, except that State Engineer Jason Ullmann made his first appearance at the event, which resulted in an even fuller house inside the Outcalt Conference Center room and a good deal of anticipation around his remarks on sustainability efforts of the aquifers.
Ullman went through his personal bio, covered ground on how Colorado, through the state legislature, created the rules to govern groundwater pumping in the San Luis Valley, and dove into an upcoming state water court trial in 2026 that will determine if a Fourth Amended Plan of Water Management governing groundwater pumping in Subdistrict 1 of the Rio Grande Water Conservation District takes effect.
It’s the Subdistrict 1 case and its unique “one-for-one” pumping feature that has generated hours upon hours of discussion and debate over the past two years. That the plan has been approved first by the Subdistrict 1 board, then by the Rio Grande Water Conservation Board, and then by the state engineer’s office itself has only set the stage for a five-week water court trial starting in January of 2026.
“How can we expedite the court case so we don’t have to wait another year, and then if it’s approved by the water court, when would it actually be implemented?” Bob Mattive of Worley Farms asked Ullman.
It was a question that cut to the heart of the matter. Irrigators in Subdistrict 1 are under orders from the state to maintain a sustainable unconfined aquifer or face an unprecedented shutdown of wells. The deadline to get there is 2031.
The growing problem is the unconfined aquifer has shown little recovery after a decade of reduced groundwater withdrawals. The Fourth Amended Plan of Water Management is looking to change the equation for groundwater pumping in order to make progress toward a sustainable aquifer and keep Ullmann and his staff satisfied with the progress.
“It very well could be 2028 before it goes into effect,” Ullmann responded, walking through how the case could get dragged out through court appeals even if Water Judge Michael Gonzales approves the plan in 2026.
Without the fourth amended plan and its new feature of holding groundwater pumping to no more than the natural surface water that comes into irrigation fields during a water season, the threat of a widespread shutdown of wells in the subdistrict is real.
Rather than gain in storage, the net unconfined aquifer level has dropped another 420,000 acre-feet since 2012, Ullmann noted and then went through the math.
For Subdistrict 1 to reach a sustainable aquifer level by the target year of 2031, it would need to reduce its overall groundwater pumping by 1.2 million acre-feet between now and then, or by 175,000 acre-feet per year for the next seven years.
Everyone working the problem knows that’s not going to happen, which is why the subdistrict is hoping for a favorable ruling from the water court judge next year.
Until then it’s hoping for snow in February and March to boost a spring runoff, and staying the course on limiting groundwater withdrawals.
The snow water equivalent on the Upper Rio Grande is currently reading 69 percent of normal for the past 30 years. NRCS is forecasting in February below-average runoffs for the Alamosa River, Conejos River, Costilla Creek, La Jara Creek, San Antonio River and the rest that make up the basin.
The months of February, March and April have mostly been dry in recent years, each month delivering under a half-inch of snow every year from 2020 to 2024, with one exception.
March of 2024 saw 1.22 inches of snow fall, which helped recharge the river system to make the water go farther, and then rains kept up through the summer and into fall. The hope now is that 2024’s year of record precipitation will help with soil conditions this planting season and then a typical monsoon season shows in the summer months.
If you’re farming in the Valley, hope is what you got.