When farmers and ranchers in the San Luis Valley talk about the decades of drought and resulting aridification that has gripped the landscape here in the 21st century, the year 2002 is frequently cited as the worst on record for snowpack yield and the period when climate change became so obvious.
The spring runoff year of 2026 is looking a lot like 2002. Concern is everywhere.
But there is a bright spot. An El Niño summer is emerging, and with it the notion that the Pacific Ocean weather pattern could push moisture into the Valley come summer, as opposed to away from the Valley as La Niña has.
The Upper Rio Grande Basin is sitting at 50 percent of the long-term median for snow water equivalent here in mid-March. The forecast for the week ahead shows temperatures reaching into the 70s as newborn sheep and calves dot the agricultural fields and producers call for the opening of the water season.
“We’re flirting with ’02 if we don’t get any more snow,” Colorado Division of Water Resources District 3 Staff Engineer Pat McDermott said during this week’s March meeting of the Rio Grande Basin Roundtable.
The state, which is eyeballing a March 16 start to the irrigation season, is counting on spring snowstorms to raise the water level. The 3-month outlook through May doesn’t indicate much in the way of precipitation, which is fine with farmers as crops get planted and the snowmelt, however little, flows in.
Given the expected low spring runoff, there is a good chance the Upper Rio Grande Basin will be depleted come June and the summer months will be particularly challenging if groundwater wells are curtailed.
That’s when reservoir storage helps. Except the reservoir storage levels across the basin, like everything else, are in poor condition.
Platoro Reservoir has current storage of 23,585 acre-feet, Rio Grande Reservoir 34,094 acre-feet and Continental 14,018 acre-feet. Those are the three largest of the nine active reservoirs. Rio Grande Reservoir in the best shape at 67 percent of its full storage capacity. Sanchez and Smith reservoirs are at 3 percent and 7 percent of storage, respectively, and Mountain Home on the east end of the Valley is at 16 percent of full storage.
The Colorado Division of Water Resources will stage the opening of this year’s water season beginning on March 16 for surface and groundwater irrigation in the Conejos River, Culebra Creek, Trinchera Creek and La Jara Creek areas of the basin. Then on March 23 irrigation season will begin for all surface and groundwater irrigators in the Rio Grande area.
“I decided to start the irrigation season earlier than the presumptive April 1 date for many Valley areas due to the very warm, dry spring and the low current snowpack. We are already seeing an increase in streamflows due to the warmer weather, and it is beneficial for water rights holders to be able to use this water while it is available,” said Craig Cotten, the Division 3 engineer for Colorado Division of Water Resources.
“On the Conejos River and the Rio Grande, another reason is that Colorado is projected to meet its compact obligation without needing to deliver water during the irrigation season. In order to avoid a significant over-delivery of water to the state line, I have decided to begin the irrigation season on these rivers prior to April 1.”
Getting an early start is not unprecedented. It happened in 2002, 2003, and 2018 — all troubling years on the Upper Rio Grande.
In the state’s strategy, an early start to the water year can avoid over-delivery on the Rio Grande Compact with New Mexico and Texas. If the season shapes up with summer precipitation, the early start could also lead to producers staying in the fields later in the year as they did last fall when the heavy October rains materialized.
“So, got the fingers crossed,” McDermott said. “I just hope it doesn’t all fall during the week that you’re cutting hay.”